Weirdly reminiscent of how then-President Bill Clinton went up in the polls after the Monica Lewinsky scandal, former President Donald Trump received a bump in various prediction markets following both his Thursday, March 30th indictment and Tuesday, April 4th arraignment. But it wasn’t just the prediction markets. In different Ipsos polls taken before and after […]
Trump Indictment Bump Read More »
The Battle of Bakhmut technically began on August 1, 2022, but escalation by both Russia and Ukraine over the winter turned it into World War I-style trench warfare. Russian troops are slowly and steadily gaining ground in and around the city at the cost of high casualties. At the same time, the upcoming Russian presidential
Are prediction markets linking Putin’s survival to success in Bakhmut? Read More »
In January 2023, debt accrued by the United States government reached its statutory limit, forcing the U.S. Treasury began taking “extraordinary measures” on January 19th. This “debt limit” is the “total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits,
Prediction markets forecast a debt ceiling increase in 2023, but probably not soon Read More »
Manifold Markets describes itself as “a play-money prediction market platform where you can bet on anything.” There probably isn’t a better way to describe it. A unique combination of PredictIt (simple user interface), Hypermind (play-money), and Metaculus (create your own markets), Manifold gamifies forecasting for a wide variety of interests and subcultures. The play-money is
Manifold by the Numbers Read More »
Last Updated: 07/22/2025 Press coverage of PredictIt’s lawsuit against the CFTC has been wanting. Online news coverage is disproportionately covering PredictIt and the CFTC as a gambling or legal story, rather than a political one. Yahoo even classified one of the Aristotle press releases under “Entertainment.” Below is a short timeline of events and media
PredictIt Legal Case Information Read More »
