Mick Bransfield

How well did election models perform in the 2022 midterms?

We’re looking at the state-level election forecasts from FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) for the 2022 U.S. Senate races.  The data was captured at 10:30 am on the morning of Election Day. Since ballots are still being counted, the Georgia runoff is on December 6th, and there will be inevitable litigation, we’re […]

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2022 U.S. Senate Forecasts & Markets One Week Out

The 2022 U.S. Senate Elections will be held in one week on Tuesday, November 8, 2022.  Below we’re comparing probabilities from forecast models, prediction markets, and bookmakers for the Republican candidate in the 35 Senate races on the ballot.  The table contains the win probabilities from: Two election forecasts (FiveThirtyEight &  Decision Desk HQ) Five

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Prediction markets betting against nuclear Armageddon in 2022

Since the very beginning of his country’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made threats of using nuclear weapons.  More veiled threats by Putin on September 21st, specifically to use “all available means,” prompted United States President Joe Biden to warn of a nuclear “Armageddon” two weeks later. While Biden compared this “direct

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Plotting Price & Volume over time of Republican shares for PredictIt 2022 U.S. Senate markets

PredictIt has markets for 18 of the 2022 U.S. Senate races and if we plot over time the price of Republican contracts against total shares traded we can visualize a price-volume curve that shifts as more competitive races increase trading volume while moving toward the center ($0.50/share) of the chart. Clicking on the below image

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One month out, Kalshi traders see Fed raising interest rates by 50 Bps in September

A previous article looked back at the historical accuracy of Kalshi traders forecasting changes in the federal funds rate one month before the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.  Kalshi traders accurately predicted changes one month out for seven out of eight upcoming FOMC meetings, based on contract prices in 28 out of

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