Mick Bransfield

Did Bookmakers & Prediction Markets fare that badly in the 2022 Senate races?

Elections / / , , , , , , , , , ,

There has been some ridicule about prediction markets’ poor performance in the 2022 Senate elections, but the data for individual Senate races is less clear.  Below we look at the state-level forecasts for 2022 Senate races from the following sources: These 12 platforms are being compared in two different ways: Prices, probabilities, and odds were […]

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PredictIt prices: Warnock 2020 v. Warnock 2022

Elections / / , , , ,

Senator Raphael Warnock’s two U.S. Senate races in Georgia were viewed very differently by PredictIt traders. In the 2020 U.S. Senate special election, all candidates ran in a “jungle primary” on the day of the General Election, with a runoff vote scheduled for January 5, 2021.  The price for Democratic “Yes” contracts in the Georgia

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How well did election models perform in the 2022 midterms?

Elections / / , , , , ,

We’re looking at the state-level election forecasts from FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) for the 2022 U.S. Senate races.  The data was captured at 10:30 am on the morning of Election Day. Since ballots are still being counted, the Georgia runoff is on December 6th, and there will be inevitable litigation, we’re

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2022 U.S. Senate Forecasts & Markets One Week Out

Elections / / , , , , , , , , ,

The 2022 U.S. Senate Elections will be held in one week on Tuesday, November 8, 2022.  Below we’re comparing probabilities from forecast models, prediction markets, and bookmakers for the Republican candidate in the 35 Senate races on the ballot.  The table contains the win probabilities from: Two election forecasts (FiveThirtyEight &  Decision Desk HQ) Five

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