Elections

PredictIt traders betting on no Trump endorsement in GOP AL-SEN primary

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On April 7, 2021, Former President Donald Trump endorsed six-term Republican Congressman Mo Brooks for the open Alabama Senate seat.  Nearly one year later, on March 23rd, Trump rescinded his endorsement of Brooks.  There has been speculation about how much of the “un-endorsement” was driven by Brooks’ desire to move past the 2020 Election versus […]

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PredictIt Updates Oregon Gov. Market for Betsy Johnson

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Yesterday, April 5th, PredictIt updated its 2022 Oregon Gubernatorial market by adding an “Independent” contract along with the existing Republican and Democratic contracts.  This is clearly to account for Betsy Johnson’s independent (technically “Nonaffiliated”) campaign for Oregon Governor. We previously looked at this market back in November when then-State Senator Betsy Johnson’s independent candidacy was

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Do averaging models, markets, and odds produce more accurate predictions?

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In judging state-level forecasts of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, we’ve primarily looked at prices from one prediction market (PredictIt), outputs from two forecasting models (FiveThirtyEight and The Economist), and the implied probabilities of gambling odds from three British bookmakers (Sky Bet, BoyleSports, and Betfred.)  Because diversity in predictions can benefit ensembles, I was curious

Do averaging models, markets, and odds produce more accurate predictions? Read More »

Do gamblers see NH Senate race moving towards GOP?

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When we looked at the betting markets a few weeks ago, gamblers were eyeing Republican wins in 11 of the 12 Senate races where both PredictIt and SBK were taking action.  In the past week, gamblers seem to see the 12th race – New Hampshire – as moving towards the GOP. PredictIt, Smarkets, and SBK

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How did FiveThirtyEight’s model perform over time?

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We previously looked at Brier scores for The Economist’s 2020 Presidential model predictions over time, and surprisingly found the scores worsened closer to Election Day.  Given the closeness of their predictions, I assumed FiveThirtyEight’s Brier scores would trend the same way but was wrong again. In the chart below you can see Brier scores for

How did FiveThirtyEight’s model perform over time? Read More »