Government

CFTC Kalshi cheat sheet

Updated 9/22/2023: CFTC rejects Kalshi’s proposed election contracts. The Monday, June 26th meeting was cancelled and the CFTC announced that it has commenced a review of contracts self-certified by Kalshi. Mersinger Dissent Pham Dissent Questions for Public Comment Public Comments Below is a summary of background information for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) meeting […]

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Is PredictIt’s Uncertain Legal Status Driving Trading Action?

Over the past year of trading, the largest spikes in trading on PredictIt’s “Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?” market (#6867) appear to have been caused by news related to the platform itself.  The CFTC initial revocation of PredictIt’s no-action letter (August 4, 2022), news of PredictIt’s lawsuit and injunction (September 15,

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Prediction markets forecast a debt ceiling increase in 2023, but probably not soon

In January 2023, debt accrued by the United States government reached its statutory limit, forcing the U.S. Treasury began taking “extraordinary measures” on January 19th.  This “debt limit” is the “total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits,

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Prediction Markets Bet on PredictIt Surviving in the Short Term

Gamblers and prediction market traders had been souring on PredictIt’s chances of surviving past the CFTC-ordered closure on February 15th.  However, when the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals granted an injunction on January 26th allowing PredictIt to continue operating while the Court considered longer-term relief, “Yes” shares (for PredictIt surviving) immediately shot up in most

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