Kalshi turns three years old today, and the past year has been a rollercoaster for the exchange: Previously we took a looked at Kalshi for its one-year and two-year anniversaries, and now we’re again taking a look at the exchange’s growth since we last checked in. Top markets by trading volume Previously limited to markets […]
Kalshi Turns Three Read More »
There are two upcoming events related to the PredictIt (April 18th) and Kalshi (May 30th) lawsuits against the CFTC: (1) Clarke v. CFTC webinar The Federalist Society is hosting a webinar featuring the attorney representing the plaintiffs in the PredictIt lawsuit, as well as Aristotle’s General Counsel. Discussing Clarke v. CFTC: The Case of PredictIt
Two Upcoming Events About Prediction Markets’ Legal Status Read More »
When we looked at The Economist and FiveThirtyEight models’ respective error over time, there wasn’t a steady downward trend toward Election Day 2020. The models both fluctuated (within a very limited range) but the Economist’s lowest Brier score was on October 3rd, and it performed better than FiveThirtyEight until the final week of the campaign.
Manifold traders increase accuracy over time Read More »
Jonathan Zubkoff – aka ZubbyBadger – is a top prediction market trader. A professional trader in events markets, he’s made over six figures on PredictIt, serves as Community Manager for Kalshi, and earlier this year won the CSPI/Salem Forecasting Tournament with $25,000 in prize money. The second-place finisher of that tournament, Robert Grosse, wrote a
The 514 trades that won ZubbyBadger $25K Read More »
Continuing the last article’s theme of ‘too good to be true,’ we now turn our attention to LK-99. LK-99 is a compound that researchers in South Korea claimed could serve as a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor. Superconductors are materials that, when cooled to a “critical temperature,” conduct electricity without energy loss. The most common use of
LK-99: The Dream Will Never Die Read More »
