For Kalshi’s one-year anniversary, we’re taking a quick look at the top five markets by dollar volume. Kalshi traders buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. The share prices can indicate what traders believe […]
Top Kalshi Markets Read More »
We previously looked separately at both The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s respective 2020 presidential models in the months leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election, and are now directly comparing their state-level predictions. This is challenging because the models made different predictions. The Economist’s model made forecasts in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., while FiveThirtyEight’s
Comparing Economist & 538 Models over time Read More »
This November’s midterm election will see 36 Gubernatorial races and 35 U.S. Senate races. Of the 44 states with at least one of those elections, 26 states will hold both. PredictIt currently has a market for 17 Senate races and 17 Gubernatorial races, but only one state has traders splitting their proverbial ticket: Pennsylvania. Traders
Where are political traders splitting tickets? Read More »
Americans are tired of COVID, but traders on the Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets believe the United States is headed for another wave by August. In both markets, a “Yes” price for the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is above 200,000 for a single day by August 1, 2022,
Prediction Markets See Another COVID Wave by August Read More »
Last week Politico leaked a draft majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. PredictIt’s existing market for the Dobbs case had already been predicting the Court would side with the State of Mississippi, and unsurprisingly, moved another 9 cents upon news of the draft opinion. As of May 8th, three prediction markets –
