When we looked at the betting markets a few weeks ago, gamblers were eyeing Republican wins in 11 of the 12 Senate races where both PredictIt and SBK were taking action. In the past week, gamblers seem to see the 12th race – New Hampshire – as moving towards the GOP. PredictIt, Smarkets, and SBK […]
Do gamblers see NH Senate race moving towards GOP? Read More »
We previously looked at Brier scores for The Economist’s 2020 Presidential model predictions over time, and surprisingly found the scores worsened closer to Election Day. Given the closeness of their predictions, I assumed FiveThirtyEight’s Brier scores would trend the same way but was wrong again. In the chart below you can see Brier scores for
How did FiveThirtyEight’s model perform over time? Read More »
PredictIt is a U.S.-based prediction market and SBK is a British sports betting app, but both are indicating that political gamblers see Republicans making gains in the U.S. Senate this year (at least as of Friday, February 4, 2022). The probabilities in the 12 Senate races where both platforms are currently accepting action are extremely
PredictIt and SBK forecasting Republican Senate gains in 2022 Read More »
As discussed in an earlier post, as of the morning of Election Day 2020, The Economist’s presidential forecasting model had a slightly higher Brier score (lower = better, higher = worse) than FiveThirtyEight’s model, but each model correctly predicted the outcome in the same number of states (49 out of 51). This made me curious
With it looking increasingly likely that Republicans will control the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are stepping up pressure on Justice Stephen Breyer to retire while their party retains a slim majority (51-50) in the U.S. Senate. As of January 13th, both PredictIt (Yes: $0.56) and Kalshi (Yes: $0.52) traders think it’s slightly
Kalshi, PredictIt (faintly) see a new Supreme Court Justice in 2022 Read More »
