As Congress considers raising the Debt Ceiling yet again, Kalshi and PredictIt traders have different takes on whether (or rather when) Congress will take action this week. While their respective binary contracts operate similarly, the platforms themselves differ a great deal: PredictIt is a prediction market. There are limits to both market size and amount […]
Kalshi v. PredictIt on U.S. Debt Ceiling Read More »
Election forecasting models took a hit to their credibility for missing Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 but were generally accurate in 2020. Because these models are dependent on polling, we can probably expect to see future issues with forecasting elections as pollster response rates drop, households disconnect their landlines, and social trust declines. At the
Were gamblers more accurate than the forecasting models in 2020? Read More »
As of Thanksgiving Day, PredictIt’s market in the Oregon 2022 Governor’s election contained price discrepancies in the “Best Buy” Republican and Democrat contracts. PredictIt offers binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A “winning” prediction receives $1/share, and a “losing” share receives nothing. PredictIt traders can buy “Yes”
Betting on the outcomes of elections in the United States is a long-time gambling proposition offered by legal bookmakers in the United Kingdom but is only something that has recently begun to occur in America. That raises the question: who is more accurate at predicting the outcomes of these elections, British gamblers for whom this
