Jonathan Zubkoff – aka ZubbyBadger – is a top prediction market trader. A professional trader in events markets, he’s made over six figures on PredictIt, serves as Community Manager for Kalshi, and earlier this year won the CSPI/Salem Forecasting Tournament with $25,000 in prize money. The second-place finisher of that tournament, Robert Grosse, wrote a […]
The 514 trades that won ZubbyBadger $25K Read More »
The New York Times recently wrote about how “The Fed’s Decisions Now Could Alter the 2024 Elections” (11/17/2023) and cited Yale Professor Ray Fair’s economy-driven election forecasting model: Professor Fair’s pioneering U.S. elections model does something that was fairly radical when he created it in the 1970s. It analyzes politics without really considering politics. Instead,
Ray Fair vs. Iowa Electronic Markets Read More »
We’re using PredictIt share prices to quantify how recent FEC reports may have led to changes in each candidate’s chances to win the GOP presidential nomination. Those reports are: Presidential Super PACs also had a FEC semi-annual reporting period close on June 30th, although they didn’t have to file until July 31st. The next period
FEC Reports Fail to Move Election Markets Read More »
Last Update: 12/05/2024 On November 1, 2023, Kalshi sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for rejecting its proposed contracts for partisan control of Congress. Below is a timeline of Kalshi’s attempts to offer election markets with respective media coverage followed by the case docket. Click on the document number to view a PDF
Kalshi Legal Case Information Read More »
The stock price for former President Donald Trump’s long-suffering SPAC seems to be unaffected by his prospects of winning the 2024 Presidential Election or his various legal issues. Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) is a “special purpose acquisition company” (SPAC), a shell company established on a stock exchange to raise funds for future unidentified acquisitions
DWAC is immune from Trump’s presidential chances – for better or worse Read More »
