Last Update: 06/28/2024 On November 1, 2023, Kalshi sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for rejecting its proposed contracts for partisan control of Congress. Below is a timeline of Kalshi’s attempts to offer election markets with respective media coverage followed by the case docket. Click on the document number to view a PDF […]
Kalshi Legal Case Information Read More »
The stock price for former President Donald Trump’s long-suffering SPAC seems to be unaffected by his prospects of winning the 2024 Presidential Election or his various legal issues. Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) is a “special purpose acquisition company” (SPAC), a shell company established on a stock exchange to raise funds for future unidentified acquisitions
DWAC is immune from Trump’s presidential chances – for better or worse Read More »
This is a (very late) campaign finance article looking at the 2024 GOP Presidential candidates, and how their spending is correlated with their standing in the polls and probability of winning. In the aftermath of McCain-Feingold, Citizens United, Speechnow, and Wisconsin Right to Life, candidates for President cannot hope to be competitive without relying on
GOP Primary Candidates’ Polls, Probabilities, and PACs (from June 30th) Read More »
Kalshi is the first federally regulated exchange for event contracts. Incorporated as a Delaware LLC on December 10, 2019, it applied for Designated Contract Market (DCM) status to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) a few weeks later on December 27th. Their application was approved almost one year later on November 3, 2020, and Kalshi
CFTC Public Comments over Kalshi Disappoint Read More »
As the 1944 presidential election approached, predictions differed between the political pundits who prognosticated and the bookmakers who took bets on the presidential election. The former, who were seen as experts in politics, were forecasting a neck-and-neck race between incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York, while the bookies
The Experts Versus Gamblers in 1944 Read More »
