Bookmaker

Do averaging models, markets, and odds produce more accurate predictions?

Elections / / , , , , , ,

In judging state-level forecasts of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, we’ve primarily looked at prices from one prediction market (PredictIt), outputs from two forecasting models (FiveThirtyEight and The Economist), and the implied probabilities of gambling odds from three British bookmakers (Sky Bet, BoyleSports, and Betfred.)  Because diversity in predictions can benefit ensembles, I was curious […]

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Do gamblers see NH Senate race moving towards GOP?

Elections / / , , , , ,

When we looked at the betting markets a few weeks ago, gamblers were eyeing Republican wins in 11 of the 12 Senate races where both PredictIt and SBK were taking action.  In the past week, gamblers seem to see the 12th race – New Hampshire – as moving towards the GOP. PredictIt, Smarkets, and SBK

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PredictIt and SBK forecasting Republican Senate gains in 2022

Elections / / , , , ,

PredictIt is a U.S.-based prediction market and SBK is a British sports betting app, but both are indicating that political gamblers see Republicans making gains in the U.S. Senate this year (at least as of Friday, February 4, 2022).  The probabilities in the 12 Senate races where both platforms are currently accepting action are extremely

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Who won the 2020 Model Wars?

Elections / / , , , , ,

In the summer of 2020, online trash talking between FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and The Economist’s G. Elliot Morris sparked the “Model Wars.” Now that the dust has settled, I’m comparing the Brier scores and the number of correctly called states from their final state-level model outputs on November 3, 2020. Please note that the models

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Are American or British gamblers better at predicting the outcomes of American elections?

Elections / / , , , ,

Betting on the outcomes of elections in the United States is a long-time gambling proposition offered by legal bookmakers in the United Kingdom but is only something that has recently begun to occur in America. That raises the question: who is more accurate at predicting the outcomes of these elections, British gamblers for whom this

Are American or British gamblers better at predicting the outcomes of American elections? Read More »