Election

How correlated are 2024 candidate nominations and general election markets on PredictIt?

Elections / / , , ,

PredictIt is a political prediction market run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, and Aristotle International of Washington, DC.  PredictIt traders can buy “Yes” and “No” shares on whether each candidate or party will win a specific election (i.e., “Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?”, “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential […]

How correlated are 2024 candidate nominations and general election markets on PredictIt? Read More »

Trump Indictment Bump

Elections / / , , , , , , , , ,

Weirdly reminiscent of how then-President Bill Clinton went up in the polls after the Monica Lewinsky scandal, former President Donald Trump received a bump in various prediction markets following both his Thursday, March 30th indictment and Tuesday, April 4th arraignment. But it wasn’t just the prediction markets.  In different Ipsos polls taken before and after

Trump Indictment Bump Read More »

Comparing the different 538 models in U.S. Senate races

Elections / / , , , ,

FiveThirtyEight’s model is actually three different official model versions built on top of each other with polling, fundamentals, and expert forecasts: Version Component(s) Lite Polling Classic Polling, Fundamentals Deluxe Polling, Fundamentals, Expert forecasts Polling: Polls are weighted based on their sample size, recency, and pollster rating.  (Pollsters are rated by methodology and past accuracy.)  In

Comparing the different 538 models in U.S. Senate races Read More »

PredictIt prices: Warnock 2020 v. Warnock 2022

Elections / / , , , ,

Senator Raphael Warnock’s two U.S. Senate races in Georgia were viewed very differently by PredictIt traders. In the 2020 U.S. Senate special election, all candidates ran in a “jungle primary” on the day of the General Election, with a runoff vote scheduled for January 5, 2021.  The price for Democratic “Yes” contracts in the Georgia

PredictIt prices: Warnock 2020 v. Warnock 2022 Read More »

How well did election models perform in the 2022 midterms?

Elections / / , , , , ,

We’re looking at the state-level election forecasts from FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) for the 2022 U.S. Senate races.  The data was captured at 10:30 am on the morning of Election Day. Since ballots are still being counted, the Georgia runoff is on December 6th, and there will be inevitable litigation, we’re

How well did election models perform in the 2022 midterms? Read More »