Election

Comparing the different 538 models in U.S. Senate races

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FiveThirtyEight’s model is actually three different official model versions built on top of each other with polling, fundamentals, and expert forecasts: Version Component(s) Lite Polling Classic Polling, Fundamentals Deluxe Polling, Fundamentals, Expert forecasts Polling: Polls are weighted based on their sample size, recency, and pollster rating.  (Pollsters are rated by methodology and past accuracy.)  In […]

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PredictIt prices: Warnock 2020 v. Warnock 2022

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Senator Raphael Warnock’s two U.S. Senate races in Georgia were viewed very differently by PredictIt traders. In the 2020 U.S. Senate special election, all candidates ran in a “jungle primary” on the day of the General Election, with a runoff vote scheduled for January 5, 2021.  The price for Democratic “Yes” contracts in the Georgia

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How well did election models perform in the 2022 midterms?

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We’re looking at the state-level election forecasts from FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) for the 2022 U.S. Senate races.  The data was captured at 10:30 am on the morning of Election Day. Since ballots are still being counted, the Georgia runoff is on December 6th, and there will be inevitable litigation, we’re

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Plotting Price & Volume over time of Republican shares for PredictIt 2022 U.S. Senate markets

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PredictIt has markets for 18 of the 2022 U.S. Senate races and if we plot over time the price of Republican contracts against total shares traded we can visualize a price-volume curve that shifts as more competitive races increase trading volume while moving toward the center ($0.50/share) of the chart. Clicking on the below image

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How much did Nate Silver move the political gambling markets?

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On Thursday, June 30th, FiveThirtyEight released its 2022 Senate Elections Forecast.  Nate Silver is the most famous election forecaster in the world, and it seemed likely that prediction markets and bookmakers would adjust to his model’s predictions.  We’re comparing the impact of FiveThirtyEight’s first public forecast by measuring the movement towards FiveThirtyEight’s state-level predictions on

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