Election

Comparing Economist & 538 Models over time

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We previously looked separately at both The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s respective 2020 presidential models in the months leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election, and are now directly comparing their state-level predictions.  This is challenging because the models made different predictions.  The Economist’s model made forecasts in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., while FiveThirtyEight’s […]

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PredictIt traders betting on no Trump endorsement in GOP AL-SEN primary

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On April 7, 2021, Former President Donald Trump endorsed six-term Republican Congressman Mo Brooks for the open Alabama Senate seat.  Nearly one year later, on March 23rd, Trump rescinded his endorsement of Brooks.  There has been speculation about how much of the “un-endorsement” was driven by Brooks’ desire to move past the 2020 Election versus

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PredictIt Updates Oregon Gov. Market for Betsy Johnson

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Yesterday, April 5th, PredictIt updated its 2022 Oregon Gubernatorial market by adding an “Independent” contract along with the existing Republican and Democratic contracts.  This is clearly to account for Betsy Johnson’s independent (technically “Nonaffiliated”) campaign for Oregon Governor. We previously looked at this market back in November when then-State Senator Betsy Johnson’s independent candidacy was

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Do averaging models, markets, and odds produce more accurate predictions?

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In judging state-level forecasts of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, we’ve primarily looked at prices from one prediction market (PredictIt), outputs from two forecasting models (FiveThirtyEight and The Economist), and the implied probabilities of gambling odds from three British bookmakers (Sky Bet, BoyleSports, and Betfred.)  Because diversity in predictions can benefit ensembles, I was curious

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Do gamblers see NH Senate race moving towards GOP?

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When we looked at the betting markets a few weeks ago, gamblers were eyeing Republican wins in 11 of the 12 Senate races where both PredictIt and SBK were taking action.  In the past week, gamblers seem to see the 12th race – New Hampshire – as moving towards the GOP. PredictIt, Smarkets, and SBK

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