PredictIt has markets for 18 of the 2022 U.S. Senate races and if we plot over time the price of Republican contracts against total shares traded we can visualize a price-volume curve that shifts as more competitive races increase trading volume while moving toward the center ($0.50/share) of the chart. Clicking on the below image […]
On Thursday, June 30th, FiveThirtyEight released its 2022 Senate Elections Forecast. Nate Silver is the most famous election forecaster in the world, and it seemed likely that prediction markets and bookmakers would adjust to his model’s predictions. We’re comparing the impact of FiveThirtyEight’s first public forecast by measuring the movement towards FiveThirtyEight’s state-level predictions on
How much did Nate Silver move the political gambling markets? Read More »
We previously looked separately at both The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s respective 2020 presidential models in the months leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election, and are now directly comparing their state-level predictions. This is challenging because the models made different predictions. The Economist’s model made forecasts in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., while FiveThirtyEight’s
Comparing Economist & 538 Models over time Read More »
On April 7, 2021, Former President Donald Trump endorsed six-term Republican Congressman Mo Brooks for the open Alabama Senate seat. Nearly one year later, on March 23rd, Trump rescinded his endorsement of Brooks. There has been speculation about how much of the “un-endorsement” was driven by Brooks’ desire to move past the 2020 Election versus
PredictIt traders betting on no Trump endorsement in GOP AL-SEN primary Read More »
Yesterday, April 5th, PredictIt updated its 2022 Oregon Gubernatorial market by adding an “Independent” contract along with the existing Republican and Democratic contracts. This is clearly to account for Betsy Johnson’s independent (technically “Nonaffiliated”) campaign for Oregon Governor. We previously looked at this market back in November when then-State Senator Betsy Johnson’s independent candidacy was
PredictIt Updates Oregon Gov. Market for Betsy Johnson Read More »
