This was a big week for Kalshi, with Monday’s CFTC hearing and the exchange’s second anniversary. Like other prediction markets, Kalshi traders buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. The share prices can indicate […]
Updated 9/22/2023: CFTC rejects Kalshi’s proposed election contracts. The Monday, June 26th meeting was cancelled and the CFTC announced that it has commenced a review of contracts self-certified by Kalshi. Mersinger Dissent Pham Dissent Questions for Public Comment Public Comments Below is a summary of background information for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) meeting
CFTC Kalshi cheat sheet Read More »
In January 2023, debt accrued by the United States government reached its statutory limit, forcing the U.S. Treasury began taking “extraordinary measures” on January 19th. This “debt limit” is the “total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits,
Prediction markets forecast a debt ceiling increase in 2023, but probably not soon Read More »
Last Updated: 06/18/2024 Press coverage of PredictIt’s lawsuit against the CFTC has been wanting. Online news coverage is disproportionately covering PredictIt and the CFTC as a gambling or legal story, rather than a political one. Yahoo even classified one of the Aristotle press releases under “Entertainment.” Below is a short timeline of events and media
PredictIt Legal Case Information Read More »
A previous article looked back at the historical accuracy of Kalshi traders forecasting changes in the federal funds rate one month before the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Kalshi traders accurately predicted changes one month out for seven out of eight upcoming FOMC meetings, based on contract prices in 28 out of
One month out, Kalshi traders see Fed raising interest rates by 50 Bps in September Read More »
