Two play-money prediction markets were set up to forecast the number of hurricanes in 2024. One market was closed to experts, and the other was open to the public. The first, CRUCIAL Atlantic Hurricane Markets (CAHM), is run by Climate Risk and Uncertainty Collective Intelligence Aggregation Laboratory (CRUCIAL). The market ran from December 10, 2023, […]
Forecasting the 2024 Hurricane Season: Manifold v. Experts Read More »
When we looked at The Economist and FiveThirtyEight models’ respective error over time, there wasn’t a steady downward trend toward Election Day 2020. The models both fluctuated (within a very limited range) but the Economist’s lowest Brier score was on October 3rd, and it performed better than FiveThirtyEight until the final week of the campaign.
Manifold traders increase accuracy over time Read More »
Jonathan Zubkoff – aka ZubbyBadger – is a top prediction market trader. A professional trader in events markets, he’s made over six figures on PredictIt, serves as Community Manager for Kalshi, and earlier this year won the CSPI/Salem Forecasting Tournament with $25,000 in prize money. The second-place finisher of that tournament, Robert Grosse, wrote a
The 514 trades that won ZubbyBadger $25K Read More »
Continuing the last article’s theme of ‘too good to be true,’ we now turn our attention to LK-99. LK-99 is a compound that researchers in South Korea claimed could serve as a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor. Superconductors are materials that, when cooled to a “critical temperature,” conduct electricity without energy loss. The most common use of
LK-99: The Dream Will Never Die Read More »
Weirdly reminiscent of how then-President Bill Clinton went up in the polls after the Monica Lewinsky scandal, former President Donald Trump received a bump in various prediction markets following both his Thursday, March 30th indictment and Tuesday, April 4th arraignment. But it wasn’t just the prediction markets. In different Ipsos polls taken before and after
Trump Indictment Bump Read More »
