Mick Bransfield

Prediction Markets Bet on PredictIt Surviving in the Short Term

Government / / , , , ,

Gamblers and prediction market traders had been souring on PredictIt’s chances of surviving past the CFTC-ordered closure on February 15th.  However, when the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals granted an injunction on January 26th allowing PredictIt to continue operating while the Court considered longer-term relief, “Yes” shares (for PredictIt surviving) immediately shot up in most […]

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Markets on Insight Prediction

Uncategorized / /

With four weeks left until PredictIt’s scheduled execution by the CFTC on February 15th, we’re taking a look at the markets offered by one of its competitors, Insight Prediction. Excluding sports, as of January 19th there are 36 markets in five categories: Category Markets Current Events 10 Economics 4 Russia/Ukraine 6 US Politics 14 World

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Comparing the different 538 models in U.S. Senate races

Elections / / , , , ,

FiveThirtyEight’s model is actually three different official model versions built on top of each other with polling, fundamentals, and expert forecasts: Version Component(s) Lite Polling Classic Polling, Fundamentals Deluxe Polling, Fundamentals, Expert forecasts Polling: Polls are weighted based on their sample size, recency, and pollster rating.  (Pollsters are rated by methodology and past accuracy.)  In

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Did Bookmakers & Prediction Markets fare that badly in the 2022 Senate races?

Elections / / , , , , , , , , , ,

There has been some ridicule about prediction markets’ poor performance in the 2022 Senate elections, but the data for individual Senate races is less clear.  Below we look at the state-level forecasts for 2022 Senate races from the following sources: These 12 platforms are being compared in two different ways: Prices, probabilities, and odds were

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