Updated 9/22/2023: CFTC rejects Kalshi’s proposed election contracts. The Monday, June 26th meeting was cancelled and the CFTC announced that it has commenced a review of contracts self-certified by Kalshi. Mersinger Dissent Pham Dissent Questions for Public Comment Public Comments Below is a summary of background information for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) meeting […]
CFTC Kalshi cheat sheet Read More »
A previous article looked at how correlated certain 2024 Presidential candidate nomination contracts on PredictIt are with their respective parties winning the General Election. We saw a positive correlation through March 1st between PredictIt share prices for former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 Republican nomination and the Republican Party’s candidate winning the 2024 U.S.
A closer look at relationship between Trump Nomination & GOP General Election chances Read More »
One of the most fascinating states, if not the most fascinating state, in recent elections is Georgia. Historically a “red” state, Former Vice-President Joe Biden upset President Donald Trump with a plurality in 2020, while two incumbent Republican Senators were replaced with Democrats. This was the first time since January 2003 that Georgia had been
Kemp – Walker Delta in 2022 Georgia General Election Read More »
PredictIt is a political prediction market run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, and Aristotle International of Washington, DC. PredictIt traders can buy “Yes” and “No” shares on whether each candidate or party will win a specific election (i.e., “Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?”, “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential
How correlated are 2024 candidate nominations and general election markets on PredictIt? Read More »
Over the past year of trading, the largest spikes in trading on PredictIt’s “Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?” market (#6867) appear to have been caused by news related to the platform itself. The CFTC initial revocation of PredictIt’s no-action letter (August 4, 2022), news of PredictIt’s lawsuit and injunction (September 15,
Is PredictIt’s Uncertain Legal Status Driving Trading Action? Read More »
