Nearly every lecture, article, book, discussion, and PowerPoint presentation about the “Wisdom of Crowds” contains the story of Sir Francis Galton and the weight-judging contest at a country fair, if not mentioning it at the very beginning. There are two problems with the account of ‘Galton at the country fair.’ First, the story rings false […]
What exactly happened when Francis Galton went to the livestock show? Read More »
This was a big week for Kalshi, with Monday’s CFTC hearing and the exchange’s second anniversary. Like other prediction markets, Kalshi traders buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. The share prices can indicate
Manifold Markets describes itself as “a play-money prediction market platform where you can bet on anything.” There probably isn’t a better way to describe it. A unique combination of PredictIt (simple user interface), Hypermind (play-money), and Metaculus (create your own markets), Manifold gamifies forecasting for a wide variety of interests and subcultures. The play-money is
Manifold by the Numbers Read More »
With four weeks left until PredictIt’s scheduled execution by the CFTC on February 15th, we’re taking a look at the markets offered by one of its competitors, Insight Prediction. Excluding sports, as of January 19th there are 36 markets in five categories: Category Markets Current Events 10 Economics 4 Russia/Ukraine 6 US Politics 14 World
Markets on Insight Prediction Read More »
With 75 days left until February 15, 2023, when PredictIt is ordered to be closed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), only 33 markets are remaining. Prohibited from creating new markets, these will likely be the last markets offered unless the CFTC has a change of heart or a lawsuit succeeds in giving PredictIt
Remaining PredictIt markets with 75 days left Read More »
