We’re looking at the state-level election forecasts from FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) for the 2022 U.S. Senate races. The data was captured at 10:30 am on the morning of Election Day. Since ballots are still being counted, the Georgia runoff is on December 6th, and there will be inevitable litigation, we’re […]
How well did election models perform in the 2022 midterms? Read More »
The 2022 U.S. Senate Elections will be held in one week on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. Below we’re comparing probabilities from forecast models, prediction markets, and bookmakers for the Republican candidate in the 35 Senate races on the ballot. The table contains the win probabilities from: Two election forecasts (FiveThirtyEight & Decision Desk HQ) Five
2022 U.S. Senate Forecasts & Markets One Week Out Read More »
On Thursday, June 30th, FiveThirtyEight released its 2022 Senate Elections Forecast. Nate Silver is the most famous election forecaster in the world, and it seemed likely that prediction markets and bookmakers would adjust to his model’s predictions. We’re comparing the impact of FiveThirtyEight’s first public forecast by measuring the movement towards FiveThirtyEight’s state-level predictions on
How much did Nate Silver move the political gambling markets? Read More »
We previously looked separately at both The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s respective 2020 presidential models in the months leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election, and are now directly comparing their state-level predictions. This is challenging because the models made different predictions. The Economist’s model made forecasts in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., while FiveThirtyEight’s
Comparing Economist & 538 Models over time Read More »
In judging state-level forecasts of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, we’ve primarily looked at prices from one prediction market (PredictIt), outputs from two forecasting models (FiveThirtyEight and The Economist), and the implied probabilities of gambling odds from three British bookmakers (Sky Bet, BoyleSports, and Betfred.) Because diversity in predictions can benefit ensembles, I was curious
Do averaging models, markets, and odds produce more accurate predictions? Read More »
