Election

GOP Primary Candidates’ Polls, Probabilities, and PACs (from June 30th)

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This is a (very late) campaign finance article looking at the 2024 GOP Presidential candidates, and how their spending is correlated with their standing in the polls and probability of winning. In the aftermath of McCain-Feingold, Citizens United, Speechnow, and Wisconsin Right to Life, candidates for President cannot hope to be competitive without relying on […]

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The Experts Versus Gamblers in 1944

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As the 1944 presidential election approached, predictions differed between the political pundits who prognosticated and the bookmakers who took bets on the presidential election.  The former, who were seen as experts in politics, were forecasting a neck-and-neck race between incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York, while the bookies

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PredictIt Price Volatility in 2022 Senate Races

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Below we’re exploring volatility in PredictIt’s 18 markets for the 2022 U.S. Senate races, using standard deviation to measure share price volatility for the respective state’s Democratic candidate’s “Yes” contracts from April 23, 2022, through November 7, 2022 (199 days in total). Standard deviation is a measure of how dispersed the market prices are in

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A closer look at relationship between Trump Nomination & GOP General Election chances

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A previous article looked at how correlated certain 2024 Presidential candidate nomination contracts on PredictIt are with their respective parties winning the General Election.  We saw a positive correlation through March 1st between PredictIt share prices for former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 Republican nomination and the Republican Party’s candidate winning the 2024 U.S.

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Kemp – Walker Delta in 2022 Georgia General Election

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One of the most fascinating states, if not the most fascinating state, in recent elections is Georgia.  Historically a “red” state, Former Vice-President Joe Biden upset President Donald Trump with a plurality in 2020, while two incumbent Republican Senators were replaced with Democrats.  This was the first time since January 2003 that Georgia had been

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