Feelings of déjà vu from the spring of 2020 for political forecasters and gamblers stems not from another contentious election, hopeless gridlock in D.C., or even the same presumptive nominees, but from Donald Trump and Joe Biden, again, both trading below 50% on prediction markets like PredictIt. Four years ago neither Trump nor Biden were […]
Presidential Prediction Market Déjà vu Read More »
Continuing the last article’s theme of ‘too good to be true,’ we now turn our attention to LK-99. LK-99 is a compound that researchers in South Korea claimed could serve as a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor. Superconductors are materials that, when cooled to a “critical temperature,” conduct electricity without energy loss. The most common use of
LK-99: The Dream Will Never Die Read More »
Weirdly reminiscent of how then-President Bill Clinton went up in the polls after the Monica Lewinsky scandal, former President Donald Trump received a bump in various prediction markets following both his Thursday, March 30th indictment and Tuesday, April 4th arraignment. But it wasn’t just the prediction markets. In different Ipsos polls taken before and after
Trump Indictment Bump Read More »
Gamblers and prediction market traders had been souring on PredictIt’s chances of surviving past the CFTC-ordered closure on February 15th. However, when the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals granted an injunction on January 26th allowing PredictIt to continue operating while the Court considered longer-term relief, “Yes” shares (for PredictIt surviving) immediately shot up in most
Prediction Markets Bet on PredictIt Surviving in the Short Term Read More »
There has been some ridicule about prediction markets’ poor performance in the 2022 Senate elections, but the data for individual Senate races is less clear. Below we look at the state-level forecasts for 2022 Senate races from the following sources: These 12 platforms are being compared in two different ways: Prices, probabilities, and odds were
Did Bookmakers & Prediction Markets fare that badly in the 2022 Senate races? Read More »
