As the 1944 presidential election approached, predictions differed between the political pundits who prognosticated and the bookmakers who took bets on the presidential election. The former, who were seen as experts in politics, were forecasting a neck-and-neck race between incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York, while the bookies […]
The Experts Versus Gamblers in 1944 Read More »
Continuing the last article’s theme of ‘too good to be true,’ we now turn our attention to LK-99. LK-99 is a compound that researchers in South Korea claimed could serve as a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor. Superconductors are materials that, when cooled to a “critical temperature,” conduct electricity without energy loss. The most common use of
LK-99: The Dream Will Never Die Read More »
Nearly every lecture, article, book, discussion, and PowerPoint presentation about the “Wisdom of Crowds” contains the story of Sir Francis Galton and the weight-judging contest at a country fair, if not mentioning it at the very beginning. There are two problems with the account of ‘Galton at the country fair.’ First, the story rings false
What exactly happened when Francis Galton went to the livestock show? Read More »
Below we’re exploring volatility in PredictIt’s 18 markets for the 2022 U.S. Senate races, using standard deviation to measure share price volatility for the respective state’s Democratic candidate’s “Yes” contracts from April 23, 2022, through November 7, 2022 (199 days in total). Standard deviation is a measure of how dispersed the market prices are in
PredictIt Price Volatility in 2022 Senate Races Read More »
This was a big week for Kalshi, with Monday’s CFTC hearing and the exchange’s second anniversary. Like other prediction markets, Kalshi traders buy and sell binary option contracts: an event either happens or does not happen (Yes or No). A correct prediction receives $1/share, and a wrong prediction receives $0/share. The share prices can indicate
