Mick Bransfield

How correlated are 2024 candidate nominations and general election markets on PredictIt?

Elections / / , , ,

PredictIt is a political prediction market run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, and Aristotle International of Washington, DC.  PredictIt traders can buy “Yes” and “No” shares on whether each candidate or party will win a specific election (i.e., “Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?”, “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential […]

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Is PredictIt’s Uncertain Legal Status Driving Trading Action?

Elections, Government / /

Over the past year of trading, the largest spikes in trading on PredictIt’s “Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?” market (#6867) appear to have been caused by news related to the platform itself.  The CFTC initial revocation of PredictIt’s no-action letter (August 4, 2022), news of PredictIt’s lawsuit and injunction (September 15,

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Trump Indictment Bump

Elections / / , , , , , , , , ,

Weirdly reminiscent of how then-President Bill Clinton went up in the polls after the Monica Lewinsky scandal, former President Donald Trump received a bump in various prediction markets following both his Thursday, March 30th indictment and Tuesday, April 4th arraignment. But it wasn’t just the prediction markets.  In different Ipsos polls taken before and after

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Are prediction markets linking Putin’s survival to success in Bakhmut?

Global / / , , ,

The Battle of Bakhmut technically began on August 1, 2022, but escalation by both Russia and Ukraine over the winter turned it into World War I-style trench warfare.  Russian troops are slowly and steadily gaining ground in and around the city at the cost of high casualties.  At the same time, the upcoming Russian presidential

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Prediction markets forecast a debt ceiling increase in 2023, but probably not soon

Government / / , , , ,

In January 2023, debt accrued by the United States government reached its statutory limit, forcing the U.S. Treasury began taking “extraordinary measures” on January 19th.  This “debt limit” is the “total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits,

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