Elections

A closer look at relationship between Trump Nomination & GOP General Election chances

Elections / / , , ,

A previous article looked at how correlated certain 2024 Presidential candidate nomination contracts on PredictIt are with their respective parties winning the General Election.  We saw a positive correlation through March 1st between PredictIt share prices for former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 Republican nomination and the Republican Party’s candidate winning the 2024 U.S. […]

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Kemp – Walker Delta in 2022 Georgia General Election

Elections / / , , , ,

One of the most fascinating states, if not the most fascinating state, in recent elections is Georgia.  Historically a “red” state, Former Vice-President Joe Biden upset President Donald Trump with a plurality in 2020, while two incumbent Republican Senators were replaced with Democrats.  This was the first time since January 2003 that Georgia had been

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How correlated are 2024 candidate nominations and general election markets on PredictIt?

Elections / / , , ,

PredictIt is a political prediction market run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, and Aristotle International of Washington, DC.  PredictIt traders can buy “Yes” and “No” shares on whether each candidate or party will win a specific election (i.e., “Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?”, “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential

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Is PredictIt’s Uncertain Legal Status Driving Trading Action?

Elections, Government / /

Over the past year of trading, the largest spikes in trading on PredictIt’s “Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?” market (#6867) appear to have been caused by news related to the platform itself.  The CFTC initial revocation of PredictIt’s no-action letter (August 4, 2022), news of PredictIt’s lawsuit and injunction (September 15,

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Trump Indictment Bump

Elections / / , , , , , , , , ,

Weirdly reminiscent of how then-President Bill Clinton went up in the polls after the Monica Lewinsky scandal, former President Donald Trump received a bump in various prediction markets following both his Thursday, March 30th indictment and Tuesday, April 4th arraignment. But it wasn’t just the prediction markets.  In different Ipsos polls taken before and after

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