With four weeks left until PredictIt’s scheduled execution by the CFTC on February 15th, we’re taking a look at the markets offered by one of its competitors, Insight Prediction. Excluding sports, as of January 19th there are 36 markets in five categories: Category Markets Current Events 10 Economics 4 Russia/Ukraine 6 US Politics 14 World […]
Markets on Insight Prediction Read More »
FiveThirtyEight’s model is actually three different official model versions built on top of each other with polling, fundamentals, and expert forecasts: Version Component(s) Lite Polling Classic Polling, Fundamentals Deluxe Polling, Fundamentals, Expert forecasts Polling: Polls are weighted based on their sample size, recency, and pollster rating. (Pollsters are rated by methodology and past accuracy.) In
Comparing the different 538 models in U.S. Senate races Read More »
There has been some ridicule about prediction markets’ poor performance in the 2022 Senate elections, but the data for individual Senate races is less clear. Below we look at the state-level forecasts for 2022 Senate races from the following sources: These 12 platforms are being compared in two different ways: Prices, probabilities, and odds were
Did Bookmakers & Prediction Markets fare that badly in the 2022 Senate races? Read More »
With 75 days left until February 15, 2023, when PredictIt is ordered to be closed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), only 33 markets are remaining. Prohibited from creating new markets, these will likely be the last markets offered unless the CFTC has a change of heart or a lawsuit succeeds in giving PredictIt
Remaining PredictIt markets with 75 days left Read More »
Senator Raphael Warnock’s two U.S. Senate races in Georgia were viewed very differently by PredictIt traders. In the 2020 U.S. Senate special election, all candidates ran in a “jungle primary” on the day of the General Election, with a runoff vote scheduled for January 5, 2021. The price for Democratic “Yes” contracts in the Georgia
PredictIt prices: Warnock 2020 v. Warnock 2022 Read More »
