Manifold Markets describes itself as “a play-money prediction market platform where you can bet on anything.” There probably isn’t a better way to describe it. A unique combination of PredictIt (simple user interface), Hypermind (play-money), and Metaculus (create your own markets), Manifold gamifies forecasting for a wide variety of interests and subcultures. The play-money is […]
Manifold by the Numbers Read More »
Last Updated: 12/17/2024 Press coverage of PredictIt’s lawsuit against the CFTC has been wanting. Online news coverage is disproportionately covering PredictIt and the CFTC as a gambling or legal story, rather than a political one. Yahoo even classified one of the Aristotle press releases under “Entertainment.” Below is a short timeline of events and media
PredictIt Legal Case Information Read More »
Gamblers and prediction market traders had been souring on PredictIt’s chances of surviving past the CFTC-ordered closure on February 15th. However, when the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals granted an injunction on January 26th allowing PredictIt to continue operating while the Court considered longer-term relief, “Yes” shares (for PredictIt surviving) immediately shot up in most
Prediction Markets Bet on PredictIt Surviving in the Short Term Read More »
With four weeks left until PredictIt’s scheduled execution by the CFTC on February 15th, we’re taking a look at the markets offered by one of its competitors, Insight Prediction. Excluding sports, as of January 19th there are 36 markets in five categories: Category Markets Current Events 10 Economics 4 Russia/Ukraine 6 US Politics 14 World
Markets on Insight Prediction Read More »
FiveThirtyEight’s model is actually three different official model versions built on top of each other with polling, fundamentals, and expert forecasts: Version Component(s) Lite Polling Classic Polling, Fundamentals Deluxe Polling, Fundamentals, Expert forecasts Polling: Polls are weighted based on their sample size, recency, and pollster rating. (Pollsters are rated by methodology and past accuracy.) In
Comparing the different 538 models in U.S. Senate races Read More »
