Presidential

A closer look at relationship between Trump Nomination & GOP General Election chances

Elections / / , , ,

A previous article looked at how correlated certain 2024 Presidential candidate nomination contracts on PredictIt are with their respective parties winning the General Election.  We saw a positive correlation through March 1st between PredictIt share prices for former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 Republican nomination and the Republican Party’s candidate winning the 2024 U.S. […]

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How correlated are 2024 candidate nominations and general election markets on PredictIt?

Elections / / , , ,

PredictIt is a political prediction market run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, and Aristotle International of Washington, DC.  PredictIt traders can buy “Yes” and “No” shares on whether each candidate or party will win a specific election (i.e., “Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?”, “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential

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Trump Indictment Bump

Elections / / , , , , , , , , ,

Weirdly reminiscent of how then-President Bill Clinton went up in the polls after the Monica Lewinsky scandal, former President Donald Trump received a bump in various prediction markets following both his Thursday, March 30th indictment and Tuesday, April 4th arraignment. But it wasn’t just the prediction markets.  In different Ipsos polls taken before and after

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Comparing Economist & 538 Models over time

Elections / / , , , ,

We previously looked separately at both The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s respective 2020 presidential models in the months leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election, and are now directly comparing their state-level predictions.  This is challenging because the models made different predictions.  The Economist’s model made forecasts in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., while FiveThirtyEight’s

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Do averaging models, markets, and odds produce more accurate predictions?

Elections / / , , , , , ,

In judging state-level forecasts of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, we’ve primarily looked at prices from one prediction market (PredictIt), outputs from two forecasting models (FiveThirtyEight and The Economist), and the implied probabilities of gambling odds from three British bookmakers (Sky Bet, BoyleSports, and Betfred.)  Because diversity in predictions can benefit ensembles, I was curious

Do averaging models, markets, and odds produce more accurate predictions? Read More »