Mick Bransfield

Comparing Economist & 538 Models over time

Elections / / , , , ,

We previously looked separately at both The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s respective 2020 presidential models in the months leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election, and are now directly comparing their state-level predictions.  This is challenging because the models made different predictions.  The Economist’s model made forecasts in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., while FiveThirtyEight’s […]

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Where are political traders splitting tickets?

Elections / / , , ,

This November’s midterm election will see 36 Gubernatorial races and 35 U.S. Senate races. Of the 44 states with at least one of those elections, 26 states will hold both. PredictIt currently has a market for 17 Senate races and 17 Gubernatorial races, but only one state has traders splitting their proverbial ticket: Pennsylvania. Traders

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Gamblers are more confident in SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade than Alito delivering majority opinion

Government / / , , ,

Last week Politico leaked a draft majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.  PredictIt’s existing market for the Dobbs case had already been predicting the Court would side with the State of Mississippi, and unsurprisingly, moved another 9 cents upon news of the draft opinion. As of May 8th, three prediction markets –

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PredictIt traders betting on no Trump endorsement in GOP AL-SEN primary

Elections / / , , ,

On April 7, 2021, Former President Donald Trump endorsed six-term Republican Congressman Mo Brooks for the open Alabama Senate seat.  Nearly one year later, on March 23rd, Trump rescinded his endorsement of Brooks.  There has been speculation about how much of the “un-endorsement” was driven by Brooks’ desire to move past the 2020 Election versus

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