As discussed in an earlier post, as of the morning of Election Day 2020, The Economist’s presidential forecasting model had a slightly higher Brier score (lower = better, higher = worse) than FiveThirtyEight’s model, but each model correctly predicted the outcome in the same number of states (49 out of 51). This made me curious […]
With it looking increasingly likely that Republicans will control the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are stepping up pressure on Justice Stephen Breyer to retire while their party retains a slim majority (51-50) in the U.S. Senate. As of January 13th, both PredictIt (Yes: $0.56) and Kalshi (Yes: $0.52) traders think it’s slightly
Kalshi, PredictIt (faintly) see a new Supreme Court Justice in 2022 Read More »
In the summer of 2020, online trash talking between FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and The Economist’s G. Elliot Morris sparked the “Model Wars.” Now that the dust has settled, I’m comparing the Brier scores and the number of correctly called states from their final state-level model outputs on November 3, 2020. Please note that the models
Who won the 2020 Model Wars? Read More »
As Congress considers raising the Debt Ceiling yet again, Kalshi and PredictIt traders have different takes on whether (or rather when) Congress will take action this week. While their respective binary contracts operate similarly, the platforms themselves differ a great deal: PredictIt is a prediction market. There are limits to both market size and amount
Kalshi v. PredictIt on U.S. Debt Ceiling Read More »
Election forecasting models took a hit to their credibility for missing Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 but were generally accurate in 2020. Because these models are dependent on polling, we can probably expect to see future issues with forecasting elections as pollster response rates drop, households disconnect their landlines, and social trust declines. At the
Were gamblers more accurate than the forecasting models in 2020? Read More »
