We’re using PredictIt share prices to quantify how recent FEC reports may have led to changes in each candidate’s chances to win the GOP presidential nomination. Those reports are: Presidential Super PACs also had a FEC semi-annual reporting period close on June 30th, although they didn’t have to file until July 31st. The next period […]
FEC Reports Fail to Move Election Markets Read More »
Last Update: 05/07/2025 On November 1, 2023, Kalshi sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for rejecting its proposed contracts for partisan control of Congress. Below is a timeline of Kalshi’s attempts to offer election markets with respective media coverage followed by the case docket. Click on the document number to view a PDF
Kalshi Legal Case Information Read More »
The stock price for former President Donald Trump’s long-suffering SPAC seems to be unaffected by his prospects of winning the 2024 Presidential Election or his various legal issues. Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) is a “special purpose acquisition company” (SPAC), a shell company established on a stock exchange to raise funds for future unidentified acquisitions
DWAC is immune from Trump’s presidential chances – for better or worse Read More »
This is a (very late) campaign finance article looking at the 2024 GOP Presidential candidates, and how their spending is correlated with their standing in the polls and probability of winning. In the aftermath of McCain-Feingold, Citizens United, Speechnow, and Wisconsin Right to Life, candidates for President cannot hope to be competitive without relying on
GOP Primary Candidates’ Polls, Probabilities, and PACs (from June 30th) Read More »
Kalshi is the first federally regulated exchange for event contracts. Incorporated as a Delaware LLC on December 10, 2019, it applied for Designated Contract Market (DCM) status to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) a few weeks later on December 27th. Their application was approved almost one year later on November 3, 2020, and Kalshi
CFTC Public Comments over Kalshi Disappoint Read More »
