With both sides surviving the 2020 Model Wars, the election forecasting blood feud continues through another election. In April 2023, news leaked out that Nate Silver and several FiveThirtyEight staffers would be victims of Disney’s mass layoffs. Silver’s last day working for “The Mouse” was June 30th and per his contract, ABC/Disney kept rights to […]
Pollster Rating Wars! Read More »
Kalshi turns three years old today, and the past year has been a rollercoaster for the exchange: Previously we took a looked at Kalshi for its one-year and two-year anniversaries, and now we’re again taking a look at the exchange’s growth since we last checked in. Top markets by trading volume Previously limited to markets
Kalshi Turns Three Read More »
Many stories have been about the upcoming “hyperactive” hurricane season predicted this year, but how accurate are these forecasts about the number of hurricanes each year? Accurate hurricane forecasts have immense social and economic value. Improvements in merely forecasting the accuracy of hurricane wind speed have been estimated to “reduced hurricane costs – damages, recovery
How Accurate are Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts? Read More »
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently held a public meeting to discuss proposed rules regarding event contracts. Under current regulations, there are only a few enumerated restrictions on contracts, including war, terrorism, and assassination. Those three restrictions were mentioned repeatedly during the two-hour meeting, reminding one of the apocryphal story about former Secretary of
Kissinger’s Betting Odds Read More »
Update 5/11/2024: CFTC proposal to ban election contracts Summary Meeting Details Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold an open meeting on Friday, May 10, 2024 at 10:00 a.m. (EDT) at the CFTC’s Washington, D.C. headquarters. Members of the public can attend the meeting in person, listen by phone, or view a live stream at
Cheat Sheet for May 10 CFTC Meeting on Event Contracts Read More »
