When we looked at The Economist and FiveThirtyEight models’ respective error over time, there wasn’t a steady downward trend toward Election Day 2020. The models both fluctuated (within a very limited range) but the Economist’s lowest Brier score was on October 3rd, and it performed better than FiveThirtyEight until the final week of the campaign. […]
Manifold traders increase accuracy over time Read More »
There have been many other real-money prediction markets and election betting exchanges operating since The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) first opened on June 1, 1988. Some of these include Intrade, HedgeStreet (now known as Nadex), UBC Election Stock Market, The Penn State Prediction Markets, Politieke AandelenMarkt in Holland, and Wahl$treet in Germany. Not to mention
The last 25 years of the Iowa Electronic Markets Read More »
Jonathan Zubkoff – aka ZubbyBadger – is a top prediction market trader. A professional trader in events markets, he’s made over six figures on PredictIt, serves as Community Manager for Kalshi, and earlier this year won the CSPI/Salem Forecasting Tournament with $25,000 in prize money. The second-place finisher of that tournament, Robert Grosse, wrote a
The 514 trades that won ZubbyBadger $25K Read More »
The New York Times recently wrote about how “The Fed’s Decisions Now Could Alter the 2024 Elections” (11/17/2023) and cited Yale Professor Ray Fair’s economy-driven election forecasting model: Professor Fair’s pioneering U.S. elections model does something that was fairly radical when he created it in the 1970s. It analyzes politics without really considering politics. Instead,
Ray Fair vs. Iowa Electronic Markets Read More »
We’re using PredictIt share prices to quantify how recent FEC reports may have led to changes in each candidate’s chances to win the GOP presidential nomination. Those reports are: Presidential Super PACs also had a FEC semi-annual reporting period close on June 30th, although they didn’t have to file until July 31st. The next period
FEC Reports Fail to Move Election Markets Read More »
